Defence and security issues are likely to be handled with France in the lead. Economic interests are going to be foremost in the government’s mind.
Germany will want to keep maximum control of the European negotiations so as not to encourage further disintegration. And crucially, Merkel interpreted the result of the referendum as meaning both: Britain leaving the EU and the common market.
XIT BEGINNING FULL
Hence her insistence, at a press conference on June 27 and again in her speech in German parliament on June 28, on the need to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to leave the EU, before any informal negotiations can commence.īut there was also a veiled threat about a creeping Brexit in her immediate reaction, the day after the referendum: until Article 50 is triggered, Britain will remain a full member of the European Union “with all benefits and obligations”. Merkel’s calm is first and foremost a negotiating strategy in times of uncertainty. The Frankfurt and London stock exchanges had been in merger talks. London is of significance for Germany’s banks, especially its flagship, albeit ailing, Deutsche Bank. Not only Germany’s big corporations, but also many small and medium-sized German businesses have close economic and trade relationships with the UK. The UK is Germany’s second-largest export market in Europe. German business and financiers would like to see a quick return to some form of stability. Germany should become a bit more British, they say. They blame Brexit on her policy towards refugees and argue that the German government has simply ignored the lack of legitimacy for EU policy. They want to see a more powerful repositioning towards the nation-state. Some German conservatives argue that Merkel’s calm is merely a form of self delusion. It makes little sense to rearrange the deck chairs while the Titanic is sinking. A fundamental re-positioning of Germany’s foreign policy stance seems unlikely. Structurally, the presence of the UK has allowed Germany to wield power without appearing too powerful. Now the questions for the German government are: how much of the status quo will it be able to preserve and how can it lead without being seen as an aggressive leader? Shifting allegiancesīrexit will remove Germany’s important ally, the UK, from the European Union – an ally that has enabled it to hone this model to perfection.